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Our long term (10+ year) investment portfolio

2024-1-1, Michael Thompson

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Our long term (10+ year) investment portfolio

In this article, we provide example portfolios, updated at least once per year. These are aimed at investors planning to save for at least 10 more years, and may be too risky for someone needing their money sooner. We've kept prior portfolios below for reference. For other example portfolios, see our portfolio pages.

The portfolio may be updated periodically based on market movements and general economics. Between updates, we will revise our allocations if extreme price changes occur. For example, if something declines to a more attractive price, we may rebalance to hold a larger percentage of that asset.

Although these portfolios have had some very good returns, future expectations should be lower. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. For example, equity returns have benefited from market values growing faster than earnings—something that will unlikely last forever.

January 1, 2024 Update

Our 2023 portfolio returned 27.9% for the calendar year, slightly above the overall US stock market which gained 26.5% and well above what we anticipated at the start of the year. It was boosted primarily by the highest risk asset GBTC, but pulled down by bonds (BND) and commodities (GSG).

We do not expect to be so lucky in 2024. Stock gains in 2023 were due more to increased valuations than improved fundamentals, so it's less likely they will continue with such high returns. Furthermore, the stellar 344% gain in GBTC was due to the 50% discout to NAV when purchased, and the developing likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF. This discount has mostly vanished, probably due to the market now pricing in a spot Bitcoin ETF—so both of those catalysts may be absent from 2024 returns.

Our portfolio remains substanially unchanged from a year ago. We remain overweight in international and small cap stocks. We've increased our US bond holdings (BND), Bitcoin (GBTC) and gold mining (GDX) slightly by pulling back from international bonds (BNDX) and commodities (GSG).

Target asset allocation as of January 1, 2024

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionComment
VTI25Total US stock market index
VXUS25Ex-US stock market index
VWO6Emerging markets index
AVUV7US small cap value stocks
AVDV6ex-US small cap value stocks
BND9US bond market
BNDX6Ex-US bond market
GBTC5BitcoinHigh risk
GDX4Gold mining ETF
GSG4Commodities
Picks3BRK, Google, ...Potential high volatility

December 30, 2022 Update

Our 2022 portfolio returned -15.9% for the calendar year, well above the overall US stock market which lost 21.5%. It was boosted primarily by the commodity ETF GSG, but also benefited from relatively good performance from AVUV and BNDX. The portion in Bitcoin and Ether was hit very hard, losing 65.5 and 68.3% respectively.

We expect better returns in 2023, though not as high as prior years, before 2022. Interest rates are expected to increase further in early 2023 with a recession likely to follow. Despite this, the S&P 500 sits at an above-average P/E which will presumably limit its returns in 2023 to small or negative single digits.

We remain overweight in international and small cap stocks, something that proved beneficial in 2022. We've increased our bond holdings above 2022 levels and restored an exposure to gold in the mining ETF GDX.

Target asset allocation as of January 2, 2023

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionComment
VTI25Total US stock market index
VXUS25Ex-US stock market index
VWO6Emerging markets index
AVUV7US small cap value stocks
AVDV6ex-US small cap value stocks
BND8US bond market
BNDX7Ex-US bond market
GBTC3BitcoinHigh risk
GDX3Gold mining ETF
GSG7Commodities
Picks3BRK, Google, ...Potential high volatility

January 2, 2022 Update

Our 2021 portfolio (further below on this page) returned 23.5% for the calendar year, slightly below the overall US stock market. It was boosted by VBR, VNQ, GSG, Bitcoin and Ether, but pulled down by our bond and gold holdings (BND, BNDX and IAU).

We expect a significantly lower overall return in 2022. High stock valuations combined with low, increasing interest rates should make this a tough year for investing.

We are increasing our equity holdings slightly, with more of a tilt towards value, small-cap and international businesses. We’ve reduced our bond holdings, but may increase them later in the year, pending interest rate moves.

Notably, we’ve eliminated our IAU (gold) position, but increased our position in the commodity fund GSG which includes gold, among other things.

Target asset allocation as of January 2, 2022

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionComment
VTI25Total US stock market index
VXUS25Ex-US stock market index
AVUV7US small cap value stocks
AVDV6ex-US small cap value stocks
BND5US bond market
BNDX5Ex-US bond market
BTC4BitcoinHigh risk
VNQ6Real estate
GSG7Commodities
ETH1EtherHigh risk
-9Individual stock picksWe may provide a list of these in the future

January 10, 2021 Update Notes

For 2021 we've decided to completely remove S&P 500 index funds for the first time. This was often our largest holding, but high valuations relative to smaller cap and international stocks steered us away.

Target asset allocation as of 2021-1-10

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionComment
VTI20Total US stock market index
VXUS20Ex-US stock market index
VBR10US small cap value stocks
BND10US bond market
BNDX10Ex-US bond market
BTC5BitcoinHigh risk
VNQ5Real estate
GSG5Commodities
IAU4Gold
ETH1EtherHigh risk
-10Individual stock picksWe may provide a list of these in the future

March 18, 2020 Update Notes

In our prior (July 2019) update we told you that experts warned of a greater than 50% chance of recession (two consecutive quarters of reduced GDP) before the end of 2020. Of course, that wasn't accounting for the coronavirus that is now crippling our economy and dominating our news. Recession may be inevitable now, but equity valuations have already accounted for this to a large degree. The virus is expected to significantly reduce economic activity for at least 3 more months and government actions may be critical to get through this smoothly. There is currently significant uncertainty about what governments will do and even then, what the results would be. Experts are not yet sure how reinfection with COVID-19 will turn out or when a vaccine will be available - there's a possibility we'll have to repeat this exercise again this winter. This being said, we are increasing our stock holdings, but not to the extent we would with a clearer COVID-19 future. We want to reiterate now more than ever: this allocation is too dangerous for someone needing access to their funds within the next few years!

Target asset allocation as of 2020-3-18

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionComment
VOO20S&P 500
VWO15Emerging markets
VEU15International markets
TLT820+ year treasury bonds
VTIP8Inflation-protected treasury bonds
IAU8Gold
VGT7Vanguard Info TechnologyVGT and VOO include significant overlap
VNQ6Real estate
GSG5Commodities
BRK.B5Berkshire Hathaway
VGIT4Intermediate-term treasury bonds
BTC1BitcoinVery high risk

July 24, 2019 Update Notes

We are updating our portfolio due to the increasing chance of recession expressed by several sources. Many sources are predicting a greater than 50% chance of recession before the end of 2020. They’ve increased these chances due to the sustained yield curve inversion, continued trade uncertainty and lower expectations on economic growth. We gradually adapt our positions to the climate rather than try to accurately time the markets.

Our new target allocations are shown in the following table. We still aim to keep 20% of our holdings in the S&P 500 index fund VOO, but we’ve shifted holdings from QQQ and VGT to foreign stocks and emerging markets with lower P/E ratios (eliminating our QQQ holdings completely). We’ve increased gold (IAU) holdings from 5 to 7%. We’d already eliminated our small Ethereum holding when the market cap far exceeded what we felt was a reasonable value.

Target asset allocation as of 2019-7-24

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionComment
VOO20S&P 500
VWO15Emerging markets
VEU12International markets
TLT920+ year treasury bonds
VGIT10Intermediate-term treasury bonds
VTIP10Inflation-protected treasury bonds
VGT5Vanguard Info TechnologyVGT and VOO include significant overlap
IAU7Gold
GSG5Commodities
VNQ6Real estate
BTC1BitcoinVery high risk

Asset allocation as of 2018-10-13

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionCommentMax share cost [$]*
VOO20S&P 500262
VWO11Emerging markets44
VEU10International markets55
TLT1020+ year treasury bonds125
VGIT10Intermediate-term treasury bonds24
VTIP10Inflation-protected treasury bonds49
VGT7Vanguard Info TechnologyVGT,QQQ,VOO include significant overlap200
QQQ5Nasdaq 100VGT,QQQ,VOO include significant overlap182
IAU5Gold13.50
GSG5Commodities17.50
VNQ5Real estate85
ETH1EthereumV. high risk190
BTC1BitcoinV. high risk4400

* we don't recommend buying above this cost per share (as of Jan 2019)

Asset allocation as of 2018-2-10

FundAllocation [%]DescriptionComment
VOO35S&P 500
QQQ20Nasdaq 100QQQ and VOO include significant overlap
TLT1020+ year treasury bonds
VGIT7Intermediate-term treasury bonds
VTIP6Inflation-protected treasury bonds
VXUS5International stock
IAU5Gold
VNQ5Real estate
GSG5Commodities
BTC2BitcoinV. high risk

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Comments / Feedback

invman Feb. 5, 2021, 3:58 p.m.
Thanks, love the portfolios. I must say your 2021 Bitcoin allocation seems excessive. That's a lot of risk dude!

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