Background

A 10-year treasury note is a loan to the federal government that should be repaid in 10 years. Treasuries are regarded as "risk-free" because they're backed by the US government. The government pays the holder interest payments every 6 months and pays the face value after 10 years. The yield on these notes is very significant as it is used as a benchmark for many other loans, including mortgages.

The table below shows the annual yield of 10-year treasury notes purchased since 1879. A single value is provided for each year—the mean annual yield of a 10-year treasury bond purchased that year.

Notice the general downtrend for 40+ years, from 1980 all the way past 2020. We seem to have broken out of this trend in the last couple years, potentially starting a new era of stable or even rising rates.

Summary statistics

Historical mean: 4.46%

Historical median: 3.70%

Historical min/max: 0.89% / 13.91%

Last 25 years mean: 3.29%

Last 10 years mean: 2.50%

Last 5 years mean: 2.73%

Mean annual yield by year

Year APY [%] 2024 4.41 2023 3.96 2022 2.95 2021 1.44 2020 0.89 2019 2.14 2018 2.91 2017 2.33 2016 1.84 2015 2.13 2014 2.54 2013 2.35 2012 1.80 2011 2.79 2010 3.21 2009 3.26 2008 3.67 2007 4.63 2006 4.79 2005 4.29 2004 4.27 2003 4.01 2002 4.61 2001 5.02 2000 6.03 1999 5.64 1998 5.26 1997 6.35 1996 6.44 1995 6.58 1994 7.08 1993 5.87 1992 7.01 1991 7.86 1990 8.55 1989 8.50 1988 8.85 1987 8.38 1986 7.68 1985 10.62 1984 12.44 1983 11.11 1982 13.00 1981 13.91 1980 11.46 1979 9.44 1978 8.41 1977 7.42 1976 7.61 1975 7.99 1974 7.56 1973 6.84 1972 6.21 1971 6.16 1970 7.35 1969 6.67 1968 5.65 1967 5.07 1966 4.92 1965 4.28 1964 4.19 1963 4.00 1962 3.95 1961 3.88 1960 4.12 1959 4.33 1958 3.32 1957 3.65 1956 3.18 1955 2.82 1954 2.40 1953 2.84 1952 2.75 1951 2.62 1950 2.43 1949 2.31 1948 2.38 1947 2.34 1946 2.21 1945 2.29 1944 2.43 1943 2.47 1942 2.46 1941 2.18 1940 2.09 1939 2.29 1938 2.47 1937 2.62 1936 2.66 1935 2.73 1934 2.97 1933 3.22 1932 3.51 1931 3.50 1930 3.31 1929 3.46 1928 3.45 1927 3.34 1926 3.52 1925 3.78 1924 3.97 1923 4.22 1922 4.33 1921 4.73 1920 5.03 1919 4.72 1918 4.54 1917 4.39 1916 4.13 1915 4.15 1914 4.20 1913 4.32 1912 4.21 1911 3.99 1910 3.94 1909 3.83 1908 3.82 1907 3.76 1906 3.54 1905 3.46 1904 3.44 1903 3.35 1902 3.23 1901 3.14 1900 3.13 1899 3.12 1898 3.23 1897 3.38 1896 3.51 1895 3.52 1894 3.59 1893 3.73 1892 3.67 1891 3.61 1890 3.51 1889 3.44 1888 3.57 1887 3.59 1886 3.44 1885 3.45 1884 3.58 1883 3.62 1882 3.62 1881 3.66 1880 3.87 1879 4.13

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